Oscar Nominations 2017: Predicting the Nominees

ABC/A.M.P.A.S.(NEW YORK) — It’s hard to imagine a comedy making the list for best picture when the nominees for the 89th Academy Awards are announced Tuesday.

“It’s a pileup of sad on the front burner,” Thelma Adams, longtime film critic and contributor to the New York Observer, told ABC News about this year’s frontrunners. “Never has it been harder for a comedy to wade through.”

Adams is referring to the content, not the quality, of the three top pictures in this year’s Oscar race. In Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight and even La La Land,” grief and loss are prominent themes.

Also on Tuesday, she expects to see several nods for black actors.

“What you’re seeing is a certain amount of reaction to #OscarsSoWhite,” she said, using the popular hashtag that cropped up last year when not a single person of color received a nomination in the four acting categories.

Nominations will be announced at 5:18 a.m. PST/8:18 a.m. EST via a live stream on the Academy’s official website and will also be carried live by ABC’s Good Morning America as well as local broadcasters and satellite feed. Jennifer Hudson, Brie Larson, Emmanuel Lubezki, Jason Reitman, Ken Watanabe and Academy President Cheryl Boone Isaacs will do the honors.

Here’s what to expect when they make the announcements Tuesday:

Best Picture
There are up to 10 slots in this category, but Adams expects only eight films will receive a nomination. In addition to the frontrunners, Manchester by the Sea, Moonlight, and La La Land, she said Arrival, Lion, and Hidden Figures have a strong chance at scoring a nod. She called Hidden Figures, a “movie for our time,” and said like previous Best Picture winner Crash, “it may be that it comes in at the end and finishes strong.”

To Hell or High Water and Hacksaw Ridge are also in the running, she said. But she’s not sure that Loving, which she also called a movie for our time, will make the cut. “People said from the beginning, it’s too small, too quiet, but that’s exactly why I love it, because you have to lean in and listen,” she said. “But it hasn’t come out stronger in the end.”

Similarly, Sully, which was a box office hit, hasn’t had a strong showing on the awards circuit thus far, but Adams said it might still make the cut.

Best Actor
Adams puts Affleck at the top of this list, adding that the only person capable of upsetting him right now is Denzel Washington, who she believes will score his fifth best actor nomination.

She also expects Ryan Gosling to score a nod, as well as Andrew Garfield, who had strong performances in both Hacksaw Ridge and Silence. The fifth slot, Adams said, will likely go to Viggo Mortensen for his performance in Captain Fantastic.

Both Joel Edgerton and Tom Hanks were in films that have since waned, hurting their chances, according to Adams.

Best Actress
Adams is excited by all the strong female roles this year, which will make this category a competitive one. She called Emma Stone the “safe choice” and French actress Isabelle Huppert, “the upset for the win.” Surprisingly, Huppert, who is considered an actor’s actress, has never been nominated for an Academy Award.

Adams also expects that Natalie Portman will get a nomination, even if her film Jackie doesn’t have the buzz, and Amy Adams will score a spot for her role in Arrival. As for the fifth slot, Adams sees a number of possibilities: Annette Bening, who “couldn’t be better,” Meryl Streep after her Golden Globes speech and Taraji P. Henson in the popular Hidden Figures.

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali seems to be everywhere these days, and Adams thinks he’ll not only score a nod but win this category. Others she expects to make the list are Jeff Bridges, Dev Patel and Lucas Hedges from Manchester by the Sea. The fifth spot could go to Hugh Grant, she said, or more likely one of the stars of Nocturnal Animals, with Aaron Taylor-Johnson having an edge after his Golden Globe win.

Best Supporting Actress
Topping this list is Viola Davis, who Adams said will likely win for her performance in Fences. That means she will push aside the other sure nominee, Michelle Williams. Adams also expects to see Naomie Harris and Nicole Kidman scoring a nod, and she said Octavia Spencer will likely grab the fifth spot.

Best Director

Looking at all the relatively new directors likely to be nominated, Adams called this category the greenest. She puts Damien Chazelle at the top of the list for his second film, La La Land, followed by Barry Jenkins for his second film, Moonlight. Designer Tom Ford could also score a nod for his second film, Nocturnal Animals, as well as indie director Jeff Nichols for Loving.

Other possibilities, Adams said, include Kenneth Lonergan for Manchester by the Sea and Denzel Washington for Fences. As for previous Oscar winner Mel Gibson, Adams said, “I don’t think he will get nominated. There’s still a little more time needed to heal the wound.”

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